Smithers' latest long-term forecast analyzes four key trends that indicate how the packaging industry will evolve.
According to Smithers' research in The Future of Packaging: Long-Term Strategic Forecasts to 2028, the global packaging market will grow at an annual rate of nearly 3% between 2018 and 2028, reaching more than $1.2 trillion. The global packaging market grew by 6.8% from 2013 to 2018 with most of the growth coming from less developed markets, for more consumers moving to urban areas and subsequently adopting more westernized lifestyles. This is driving the development of packaged goods and the e-commerce industry is accelerating this demand globally.
Numerous drivers are having a significant impact on the global packaging industry.
4 major trends that will emerge in the next decade.
1、The impact of economic and population growth on innovation packaging
The global economy is expected to continue to expand generally over the next decade, driven by growth in emerging consumer markets. The impact of the U.K.'s withdrawal from the European Union and the escalation of the tariff war between the U.S. and China may cause short-term disruptions. Overall, however, incomes are expected to rise, thereby increasing consumer spending on packaged goods.
The global population will increase, especially in major emerging markets such as China and India, and urbanization rates will continue to grow. This translates into increased consumer spending on consumer goods and access to modern retail channels, as well as a growing middle class eager to access global brands and shopping habits.
Increasing life expectancy will lead to an aging population - especially in major developed markets such as Japan - which will increase the demand for healthcare and pharmaceutical products. At the same time, there is a need for easy-to-open solutions and packaging suited to the needs of seniors. Also fueling the demand for smaller portion packaged goods; and additional conveniences such as resealable or microwaveable packaging innovations.
2、Packaging sustainability and environmentally friendly packaging materials
Concerns about the environmental impact of products are an established phenomenon, but since 2017 there has been a renewed interest in sustainability, with a particular focus on packaging. This is reflected in central government and municipal regulations, consumer attitudes and the values of brand owners communicated through packaging.
The EU is leading the way in this area by promoting the principles of the circular economy. There is particular concern about plastic waste, and as high-volume, single-use items, plastic packaging has come under particular scrutiny. Numerous strategies are advancing to address the problem, including alternative materials for packaging, investments in developing bio-based plastics, designing packaging to make it easier to recycle and dispose of, and improving recycling and disposal mechanisms for plastic waste.
As sustainability has become a key driver for consumers, brands are increasingly keen on packaging materials and designs that visibly demonstrate a commitment to the environment.
With as much as 40 percent of the food produced globally going uneaten - reducing food waste is another key goal for policymakers. This is an area where modern packaging technology can have a significant impact. High-barrier bags and steaming cans, for example, add additional shelf life to food products and are particularly beneficial in less developed markets that lack refrigerated retail infrastructure. Many R&D efforts are improving packaging barrier technologies, including the integration of nano-engineered materials.
Minimizing food loss also supports the wider use of smart packaging to reduce waste in the distribution chain and reassure consumers and retailers about the safety of packaged foods.
3、Consumer trends - online shopping and e-commerce logistics packaging
The global online retail market continues to grow rapidly, driven by the popularity of the Internet and smartphones. Consumers are increasingly buying more goods online. This will continue to increase through 2028, and demand for packaging solutions (especially corrugated formats) that can safely transport goods through more sophisticated distribution channels will increase.
More and more people are consuming food, beverages, medicines and other products on the go. The demand for convenient and portable packaging solutions is increasing and the flexible packaging industry is one of the major beneficiaries. With the shift to single living, more consumers - especially the younger demographic - tend to buy groceries more frequently and in smaller quantities. This is driving the growth of convenience store retail and driving demand for more convenient, smaller-sized formats.
Consumers are increasingly interested in their health issues, which leads to healthier lifestyles. As a result, this is driving demand for packaged goods such as healthy foods and beverages (e.g., gluten-free, organic/natural, partially controlled) as well as over-the-counter medications and nutritional supplements.
4、Brand owner trend - intelligent and digital
Many brands in the FMCG industry are becoming more international as companies seek new high-growth areas and markets.
By 2028, an increasingly Westernized lifestyle in the major growth economies will accelerate this process.
The globalization of e-commerce and international trade has also spurred demand from brand owners for packaging accessories such as RFID tags and smart labels to prevent counterfeit goods and better monitor their distribution.
Industry consolidation of M&A activity in end-use sectors such as food, beverage, and cosmetics is also expected to continue. As more brands come under the control of one owner, their packaging strategies are likely to be integrated.
In the 21st century, less brand loyalty is consumed. This mimics the interest in customized or versioned packaging and packaging solutions that can have an impact on them. Digital (inkjet and toner) printing provides the key means to achieve this, with higher throughput presses dedicated to packaging substrates now installed for the first time. This further aligns with the desire for integrated marketing, with packaging providing the means to link to social media.
